Big Picture podcast

What the inverted yield curve foretells

For decades an inverted yield curve has unerringly predicted recession in the US and beyond. The margin between the 2-year and the 10-year bonds in the US is around 100 basis points, so despite robust economic data, the future is uncertain. Last week Philip Saunders discussed the theory and implications for the global economy.

14 Mar 2023

11 minutes

Philip Saunders
For decades an inverted yield curve has unerringly predicted recession in the US and beyond. The margin between the 2-year and the 10-year bonds in the US is around 100 basis points, so despite robust economic data, the future is uncertain. Last week Philip Saunders discussed the theory and implications for the global economy.

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Authored by

Philip Saunders
Director Investment Institute

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