Oct 1, 2021
This microsite allows you to probe our methodology, assess how effective our assumptions have been historically, and access our latest views and case studies. To foster a sense of dialogue, we include a curated list of questions we have received from various stakeholders and our responses. We hope this research is a helpful complement to your own thinking as you develop your views.
We intend to revisit our assumptions on a semi-annual basis, given the usually slow-moving nature of long-term returns. We will supplement the end-March and end-September updates should it be required by market events.
Our framework emphasises income payments across asset classes, as they are both readily measured and pivotal in determining returns. In addition, long-term history is available, and income is less subject to manipulation than accounting metrics.
We divide returns into three components. The first – income – is a tangible, known entity, but the others are subject to material misestimation:
This section is a summary of our approach; more detail may be found in the Methodology section.
General risks. Forecasts are inherently limited and modelling involves risks, assumptions and uncertainties, they are forward looking and are not guarantees nor a reliable indicator of future results. Actual returns could be materially higher or lower than projected. This information is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class or strategy or as a promise of future performance. The value of investments, and any income generated from them, can fall as well as rise. Costs and charges will reduce the current and future value of investments. Where charges are taken from capital, this may constrain future growth. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. If any currency differs from the investor's home currency, returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations. Investment objectives and performance targets are subject to change and may not necessarily be achieved, losses may be made. Environmental, social or governance related risk events or factors, if they occur, could cause a negative impact on the value of investments.