Market review

Q1 in review

Coming into 2025, markets were positioned for a continuation of US exceptionalism under a new Republican administration. Instead, what we have been served is unpredictable trade policy which has sparked volatility, dampened US growth expectations, and shifted leadership abroad. European fiscal stimulus has surprised to the upside, and emerging markets outperformed their developed market peers, while commodities led gains amid rising inflation and geopolitical tension.

07 Apr 2025

11 minutes

Chapters

01
Global equities
02
US
03
South Africa
04
China
05
Emerging markets
06
Europe and UK
07
Global fixed income
08
Global credit
09
EM fixed income
10
Commodities
01

Global equities

Shipping containers
A broadening of leadership.

Global equity markets diverged sharply in Q1 2025 as regional dynamics and policy responses shaped performance. The US market struggled, weighed down by renewed trade tensions, inflation concerns and the unwinding of big tech dominance. The S&P 500 posted its worst quarterly return in three years, while investor sentiment shifted toward more traditional sectors. In contrast, European equities delivered strong returns, buoyed by a structural shift in fiscal policy towards higher defence spending and relative economic resilience. UK equities followed suit, supported by large-cap banks and defence firms. South African markets stood out globally, fuelled by a powerful rally in precious metals and a robust resources sector. Meanwhile, Chinese equities rebounded on the back of economic stabilisation, stimulus measures and AI-driven tech optimism, despite persistent structural concerns. Emerging markets broadly outperformed their developed counterparts, with positive momentum driven by policy tailwinds, commodity strength and improved sentiment in key regions such as China, Brazil and Central Europe.

Indices (total return in local currency)
S&P 500 -4.4%
Nasdaq Composite -10.3%
MSCI ACWI -1.3%
Nikkei 225 -10.1%
EuroStoxx 600 5.2%
FTSE 100 6.1%
Hang Seng Index 16.1%
SSE Composite -0.5%

Source: Bloomberg as at 31 March 2025.

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