Think back to 1970. Oil was at $3.20 a barrel, the US had just begun détente with the Soviet Union, and the shah of Iran was the US protégé in the gulf.
In Road to 2030, we take a practitioner's perspective aided by both internal and external experts to ask the ‘what if’ questions and consider major changes to the status quo. Road to 2030 explores the investment consequences of different scenarios – even those you wouldn’t imagine.
The project engaged investment teams at Ninety One around a series of roundtables held in 2019 and 2020. The primary purpose of these exercises was to ask “what if” questions in a structured way, encouraging us as investment managers to stretch our thinking and consider possibilities that seemed remote today. A pandemic, for instance, was one of the potential game changers highlighted early on in our research process, precisely the sort of extraordinary risk such a project should be able to concentrate minds on.
At the very least, the Road to 2030 is a horizon scanning and risk management exercise; at its best, it provides a foundational understanding of the main drivers that will transform markets over the next decade.