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Kapitalmarktausblicke - September 2021

Das Capital Market Assumptions Modell von Ninety One legt den Fokus auf die wichtigsten Treiber der langfristigen Performance. Durch unsere Kapitalmarktausblicke können wir das Renditepotenzial verschiedener Anlageklassen besser einschätzen und erhalten eine bessere Informationsgrundlage für Kundengespräche. (Artikel in englischer Sprache)

2021 M10 1

4Factor Global Core team
Das Capital Market Assumptions Modell von Ninety One legt den Fokus auf die wichtigsten Treiber der langfristigen Performance. Durch unsere Kapitalmarktausblicke können wir das Renditepotenzial verschiedener Anlageklassen besser einschätzen und erhalten eine bessere Informationsgrundlage für Kundengespräche. (Artikel in englischer Sprache)
4Factor Global Core team
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This microsite allows you to probe our methodology, assess how effective our assumptions have been historically, and access our latest views and case studies. To foster a sense of dialogue, we include a curated list of questions we have received from various stakeholders and our responses. We hope this research is a helpful complement to your own thinking as you develop your views.

The approach we have taken:
  1. Establishes a structured framework to determine possible future returns, based on three core drivers to clarify thinking – income, growth and reversion;
  2. Effectively distinguishes between high - and low prospective return scenarios, underpinning successful decisions on the direction of future return; and
  3. Currently demonstrates how challenging it is to secure attractive returns from a static asset allocation, therefore demanding thoughtful allocation and selection choices
Keeping you updated

We intend to revisit our assumptions on a semi-annual basis, given the usually slow-moving nature of long-term returns. We will supplement the end-March and end-September updates should it be required by market events.

Capital market assumptions

01
Overview
02
Key takeaways
03
Historical effectiveness
04
Fixed income
05
Equities
06
Currency
07
Methodology
08
Frequently asked questions
09
Ask a question
01

Overview

Sun breaking through clouds over Shanghai
This section is a summary of our approach; more detail may be found in the Methodology section.

Our framework emphasises income payments across asset classes, as they are both readily measured and pivotal in determining returns. In addition, long-term history is available, and income is less subject to manipulation than accounting metrics.

We divide returns into three components. The first – income – is a tangible, known entity, but the others are subject to material misestimation:

  1. Income: yield is historically the single most important explanatory factor for income-generating assets
  2. Growth: the extent to which income is expected to change over time
  3. Revaluation: the price per unit of income likely to apply at the end of the period (typically, 10 years)

This section is a summary of our approach; more detail may be found in the Methodology section.

General Risks
Forecasts are inherently limited and modelling involves risks, assumptions and uncertainties, they are forward looking and are not guarantees nor a reliable indicator of future results. Actual returns could be materially higher or lower than projected. This information is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class or strategy or as a promise of future performance.

The value of investments, and any income generated from them, can fall as well as rise. Costs and charges will reduce the current and future value of investments. Where charges are taken from capital, this may constrain future growth.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. If any currency differs from the investor's home currency, returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations.
Investment objectives and performance targets are subject to change and may not necessarily be achieved, losses may be made.
Environmental, social or governance related risk events or factors, if they occur, could cause a negative impact on the value of investments.