The 2020s are not volatile. They are structurally different.

The end of easy globalisation

Easy globalisation is over: multipolarity, bottlenecks and public dissatisfaction are reshaping the world. For investors, that means old assumptions are less reliable and resilience matters more.

Veröffentlichungsdatum

14. Apr. 2026

Introduction

When we published our Road to 2030 framework in 2020, we argued that markets and geopolitics would be shaped by five forces, including the Rise of China. That diagnosis remains broadly correct, but events since then require a shift in emphasis. US policy has become a prime mover in its own right, influential middle powers have gained weight and the rules-based order is fragmenting into a more competitive and politicised system.

We therefore recast the “Rise of China” theme as ‘the end of easy globalisation’, focusing on three transformations:

Key takeaways

Globalisation is no longer happening on easy mode
The model of global integration built on unipolar geopolitics, cheap energy and political consensus is no longer stable.
Multipolarity, bottlenecks and dissatisfaction are the key drivers
Three drivers for the 2020s: multipolar geopolitics under a nuclear constraint; a shift from commodity abundance to bottlenecks; deepening public dissatisfaction.
We remain in a ‘crisis of global integration’
This is the fourth systemic crisis since 1900.
Portfolios are still anchored in the past
Diversification based on stable correlations – particularly between equities and bonds – is less reliable, inflation is more episodic; political and economic outcomes diverge more sharply across countries and sectors.
Portfolios will need to change
Portfolios must be prepared for higher volatility, fatter tails and greater dispersion, rather than a single benign macro baseline.

All

Wichtige Hinweise

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Alle darin enthaltenen Informationen werden als zuverlässig erachtet, können jedoch ungenau oder unvollständig sein. Die hier geäußerten Meinungen sind die des jeweiligen Verfassers zum Zeitpunkt der Veröffentlichung und stimmen nicht notwendigerweise mit den Meinungen von Ninety One überein.

Es handelt sich um ehrlich vertretene Meinungen, die jedoch keine Garantie darstellen und nicht als Grundlage für Anlageentscheidungen dienen sollten.

Österreich

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The end of easy globalisation

Easy globalisation is over: multipolarity, bottlenecks and public dissatisfaction are reshaping the world. For investors, that means old assumptions are less reliable and resilience matters more.

Introduction

Key takeaways

Road to 2030

Österreich

Select your role

The end of easy globalisation

Easy globalisation is over: multipolarity, bottlenecks and public dissatisfaction are reshaping the world. For investors, that means old assumptions are less reliable and resilience matters more.

Introduction

Key takeaways

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Road to 2030